A Different Market Heading Into the Holidays
As we head into November 2026, Northern Virginia buyers are seeing something we have not had much of in recent years: more choices and fewer completed sales.
The latest full MLS-backed report available from the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® covers September 2026 and uses Bright MLS data through October 12. Active listings across Northern Virginia jumped 30.7% from a year earlier, while closed sales declined 7.5%. Months of supply increased 29.5% to 2.5 months.
That is a meaningful shift, but I would not call it a buyer’s market yet. NVAR notes that five to six months of supply is generally associated with a balanced market. This market slowdown is giving buyers more breathing room without eliminating competition.
Ashburn Is Seeing More Inventory Around It
For Ashburn, Loudoun County provides the clearest public MLS-backed picture of current conditions.
Loudoun had 1,031 active listings in September, up 34.1% from September 2025. Closed sales dropped 17.8% to 338, and average days on market increased 6.9% to 31 days. Months of supply reached 2.41, up 37.7%.
Those numbers point to a noticeable market slowdown in activity. However, prices have not collapsed. Loudoun County’s median sold price was $758,500, up 0.8% year over year. Buyers looking in Ashburn may have more homes to compare and potentially more negotiating opportunities, but well-priced properties can still command attention.
Reston Buyers Have More Choices Too
Reston sits within the Northern Virginia market covered by NVAR, where inventory growth has been particularly strong among condos and townhomes.
In September, condo and townhome inventory across the region increased 49.7% year over year, while detached-home inventory grew just 5.7%. Homes averaged 28 days on market, unchanged from September 2025.
That distinction matters in Reston because the community offers a broad mix of condos, townhomes, and detached homes. The current market slowdown may create more opportunity in attached housing than in detached properties, so buyers should evaluate the specific property type rather than assume every seller has the same motivation.
Higher Mortgage Rates Are Affecting Buyer Activity
Financing costs are another reason the fall market is moving more cautiously.
Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.32% as of October 22, 2026, compared with 6.19% one year earlier. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.68%.
Virginia Realtors® also reported a 4.2% year-over-year decline in statewide September home sales while active inventory increased 20.4%. Their outlook noted that higher mortgage rates and growing inventory could contribute to a slower fall market.
Conclusion: A Slowdown Can Create Opportunity
The pre-holiday market slowdown does not mean every Ashburn or Reston seller is ready to negotiate. But more inventory, fewer transactions, and higher financing costs mean buyers may have opportunities that were harder to find earlier in the year.
As your Realtor®, I help you determine where that opportunity actually exists. I help you compare properties, evaluate conditions, understand recent sales, negotiate your deal, and protect your interests as your fiduciary. I have your back.
I am also experienced in helping buyers consider pre-inspections when appropriate. That can give you the peace of mind you need to make a confident offer quickly when the right home appears, before another bidder swoops in and gets it first.
Seeing a home in Ashburn or Reston and wondering how much negotiating room you really have? Let’s review the property and your strategy before you write the offer.
